The global textile industry is closely monitoring the latest report from the China Cotton Association (CCA), which recently released its national planting intention survey for 2026. Based on an investigation of 1,805 growers conducted in January 2026, China’s national intended cotton planting area is projected at 44.583 million mu. This figure indicates a remarkably stable outlook, showing only a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. These data points provide a sense of certainty for global supply chains, as China remains a dominant producer of "white gold" that dictates international commodity price trends.
The Xinjiang region continues to be the industry's backbone, with an intended planting area of 40.831 million mu. While this represents a marginal 0.2% annual decline, planting intentions in the region are considered rock-solid, bolstered by steady government cotton policies and favorable climatic conditions in recent years. Furthermore, rapid improvements in mechanization and enhanced farm management capabilities are the primary reasons why 91.5% of Xinjiang farmers plan to keep their acreage unchanged. CCA representatives noted that confidence among these growers is rising, with the share of households planning to expand their fields ticking upward compared to the previous month's survey.
A slightly different picture emerges in the river basin regions, where uncertainty remains prevalent. In the Yangtze River Basin, the intended area is expected to drop by 3.5% to 1.261 million mu, with approximately 60% of surveyed households currently in a "wait-and-see" position. A similar trend was observed in the Yellow River Basin, which recorded a 5% decline in planting intentions. In these areas, competition for land with other food crops and fluctuations in market prices are key factors weighing on farmers’ decisions ahead of the new planting season.
Despite the shrinking acreage in certain regions, the pace of seed cotton sales has shown impressive performance. In the Yellow River Basin, sales reached 95.6% by the end of January, moving 13.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. In terms of pricing, the average selling price in the Yangtze River Basin in January stood at 6.5 yuan/kg. While this is a slight year-on-year decrease, it represents a significant 14.9% jump from December prices, offering a much-needed boost to farmers' profit margins at the start of the year.
Overall, the CCA report paints a picture of a Chinese cotton industry transforming toward efficiency rather than mere land expansion. With Xinjiang’s dominance becoming more centralized and digitized, China appears focused on crop quality and harvest stability to meet both domestic and export demands. International textile market players are now watching closely to see if this stable planting intent will be matched by high productivity, ultimately maintaining the global cotton supply balance in a highly competitive 2026 trade environment.
